Novychas2’s Weblog

Dear Friends –

  Happy Holidays! In Belarus, where celebration of the New Year is still more popular than Christmas, it is a tradition to use this last week of the year to look back at the 12 months gone by, putting things into perspective and thinking about the year in front.

2007 was in many ways a turning year for Belarus. The unique economic system that has made the Lukashenka regime possible, and in its own measure, successful for the last 14 years has finally started to break. Russian subsidies, amounting to over $8 billion a year, were creating an “economic miracle” out of an outdated and inefficient socialist state. Take any country and give it one fifth of its economy for free, and it too would indeed have an economic miracle!

In 2007, some of these subsidies were finally stopped. Not all, but however little the leadership in Moscow found the guts to withdraw, immediately showed to the world and to the Belarusians, what their “miracle” was really about. And the regime immediately got nervous. It begged for credit, and free oil, as far as the distant Venezuela. It tried to enter into strategic agreements with Iran. It received some gifts from the ever cunning China. But none of that would have any chance of plugging the multibillion black whole that, if not covered, would crush this regime in less than a year. Then the regime started smiling at Europe. In the last couple of months it even seemed possible, for the first time, that a political thaw could occur, and the small country bordering the world’s most prosperous alliance would finally turn its face to Europe.

Alas. With the closing of the year came the farce of the Novy Chas trial, a similar trial in Krychev, new one year and a half sentence to Artur Finkevich (on December 19^th, the same day with the Novy Chas trial), beatings on the Square… And 15 days arrests have become something as common as a ride in a public bus down a newly renamed Minsk avenue.

The president then told El Pais that Europe’s simple conditions of cooperation are not reasonable. In his mind, people should be giving 8 billion a year simply for his smiles (this is more expensive than the smile of any supermodel, and a lot less sexy). To him, Belarus should get European support simply for fulfilling its contractual obligations and transporting Russian gas and oil to the EU without interruption. The message is clear – no change is forthcoming. And with Russia again taking Belarus under its wing, albeit on new terms, at year end, it may become still more distant.

But the regime will be forced to continue to play Europe’s hand. So our particular thanks go to Javier Solana for his personal support of the Novy Chas, political prisoners and freedoms in Belarus. It was also effective, proving that the EU’s simple course – cooperation under 12 conditions – in combination with US tough policy towards the regime in Belarus is indeed correct. We also thank the CPJ, a private organization whose statement reached the gray walled Minsk court on the day of the trial and helped mitigate the sentence.

Meanwhile, six our friends are spending this Christmas in prison. Let’s remember them amid the warmth of fireplaces, candle lit tables or snowy ski slopes – wherever we find ourselves this magical time.

Thanks and best wishes from Belarus.